AEK Larnaca vs Paphos: match statistics
AEK Larnaca vs Paphos: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
AEK Larnaca play Paphos in First Division (Cyprus). The match date is 16 May 2026 at 17:00. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
AEK Larnaca: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Paphos: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
AEK Larnaca scores 1.72 and concedes 0.92 goals per match. Paphos scores 1.83 and concedes 1.06. League average: 2.64 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: AEK Larnaca 53%, Paphos 47%. Over 2.5: AEK Larnaca 42%, Paphos 50%. League level: BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Paphos has higher xG: 1.50 vs 1.47. AEK Larnaca: 11.5 shots per match, Paphos: 11.6.
Match halves
AEK Larnaca: half-time lead 53%, second-half goals 0.83. Paphos: half-time lead 47%, second-half goals 0.97.
Goals by minute
AEK Larnaca: 76-90+ (14 goals). Paphos: 76-90+ (25 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
First Division: 2.64 goals per match, BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
3 H2H matches: 1-1-1. Average goals 3.67, BTTS 100%.
Match description
AEK Larnaca possesses a clear home defensive advantage: they concede 0.82 goals per home match versus Paphos’ 1.35 conceded away, and the home side’s clean sheet rate is 47% compared to the visitors’ 29%. In attack the hosts create more chances — AEK averages 13 shots and 4.76 on target per home game with xG 1.59, while Paphos records 10.53 shots, 4.59 on target and xG 1.42 on the road. The visitors, however, are more efficient in conversion (16% vs 14%) and have netted 62 goals this season versus AEK’s 56; in the last 5 matches Paphos scored 9 goals compared to AEK’s 5. Form and points-related metrics favor the hosts: at home AEK wins 65% of matches and loses only 18%, and over the last 5 games they averaged 1.6 points per match versus Paphos’ 1.4. Considering the better defence (28 goals conceded this season vs 36), higher home xG and superiority in shot volume, I assign a higher probability to an AEK victory.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| AEK Larnaca | Paphos | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
AEK Larnaca is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - AEK Larnaca · 1.4 pts / match - Paphos
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Paphos is 6% better for: goals scored per match.
1.72 goals / match - AEK Larnaca · 1.83 goals / match - Paphos
AEK Larnaca is 15% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.92 goals / match - AEK Larnaca · 1.06 goals / match - Paphos
AEK Larnaca scores in 86% of matches (31 of 36 matches), while Paphos keeps a clean sheet in 42% (15 of 36 matches).
Paphos scores in 86% of matches (31 of 36 matches), while AEK Larnaca keeps a clean sheet in 33% (12 of 36 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — AEK Larnaca
Over / Under — Paphos
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
AEK Larnaca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 53% of matches and wins 56%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Paphos - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 47% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (25 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): +10 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
AEK Larnaca
Paphos
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (First Division).
Teams vs league
| AEK Larnaca | Liga | Paphos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.64 | 2.64 | ▲ 2.89 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 53% | 43% | ▲ 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 42% | 48% | ▲ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 31% | ▲ 42% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 81% | 73% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 83% | 79% | • 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): AEK Larnaca 1 - 1 - 1 Paphos. Average goals 3.67, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of AEK Larnaca vs Paphos?
The First Division match finished AEK Larnaca 2:2 Paphos. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Larnaca and Paphos?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches AEK Larnaca won 1, Paphos won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before AEK Larnaca vs Paphos?
AEK Larnaca score 1.72 goals per game on average and Paphos 1.83. The First Division average is 2.64 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 53% of AEK Larnaca's matches and 47% of Paphos's.
What form are AEK Larnaca and Paphos in?
Over the last 5 games AEK Larnaca have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Paphos 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for AEK Larnaca vs Paphos?
The statistical background for AEK Larnaca vs Paphos — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.