Nacional vs Danubio: match statistics
Nacional vs Danubio: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Nacional play Danubio in Primera División (Uruguay). The match date is 26 April 2026 at 00:00. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Nacional: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Danubio: 0-3-2, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Nacional scores 1.55 and concedes 1.30 goals per match. Danubio scores 1.00 and concedes 1.35. League average: 2.42 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Nacional 55%, Danubio 55%. Over 2.5: Nacional 65%, Danubio 45%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 46%.
xG, shots and style
Nacional has higher xG: 1.51 vs 1.24. Nacional: 11.9 shots per match, Danubio: 9.3.
Match halves
Nacional: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.85. Danubio: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.50.
Goals by minute
Nacional: 31-45+ (7 goals). Danubio: 0-15 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.42 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 46%.
Head-to-head
4 H2H matches: 2-2-0. Average goals 1.75, BTTS 25%.
Match description
I back the home win (Nacional) based on clear home advantage in chance creation: home xG 1.82 vs Danubio 0.99, average shots 15.4 vs 7.33 and shots on target 5.2 vs 2.5. Nacional scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches versus Danubio’s 4, and the hosts have a superior points rate in that period — 1.4 points per game vs 0.8 for the visitors. Defensive differential also favors Nacional: at home they concede 0.6 goals per game and keep 40% clean sheets, while Danubio concede 1.83 goals on the road and have only 17% clean sheets. The risk for the hosts is that they conceded 9 goals in their last 5 matches (1.8 per game) and Danubio have a higher shot conversion rate, 11% vs Nacional’s 8%, which could increase the chance of a draw or upset. Considering the edge in xG, shot volume and quality of chances, plus better home defense, I estimate Nacional’s win probability at 65%, draw 20% and Danubio win 15%.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Nacional | Danubio | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nacional is 233% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Nacional · 0.6 pts / match - Danubio
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nacional is 55% better for: goals scored per match.
1.55 goals / match - Nacional · 1 goals / match - Danubio
Nacional scores in 80% of matches (16 of 20 matches), while Danubio keeps a clean sheet in 25% (5 of 20 matches).
Danubio scores in 65% of matches (13 of 20 matches), while Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 30% (6 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Nacional
Over / Under — Danubio
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Danubio is 8% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.3 pts / match - Nacional · 1.4 pts / match - Danubio
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Danubio - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 20%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (4 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -8 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Nacional
Danubio
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Nacional | Liga | Danubio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.85 | 2.42 | • 2.35 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 55% | 53% | ▲ 55% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 65% | 46% | • 45% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 30% | 27% | ▼ 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 65% | 69% | ▼ 65% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 85% | 73% | ▲ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Nacional 2 - 2 - 0 Danubio. Average goals 1.75, both teams scored in 25% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Nacional vs Danubio?
The Primera División match finished Nacional 1:2 Danubio. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Nacional and Danubio?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Nacional won 2, Danubio won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 1.75 goals, with both teams scoring in 25% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Nacional vs Danubio?
Nacional score 1.55 goals per game on average and Danubio 1.00. The Primera División average is 2.42 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 55% of Nacional's matches and 55% of Danubio's.
What form are Nacional and Danubio in?
Over the last 5 games Nacional have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Danubio 0-3-2 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nacional vs Danubio?
The statistical background for Nacional vs Danubio — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.