Cerro vs Progreso: match statistics
Both teams are displaying very poor form this season, with an identical record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, as well as the same PPG (0.4 points per match). Cerro has not won a single home game but possesses a better defense (1 goal conceded on average) and goal difference (-1) compared to Progreso away (-2, 2 goals conceded on average). Progreso has better shooting efficiency (20% vs 7%) and more shots on target (2.5 vs 2) but has conceded a massive 10 goals in 5 away matches. The form of both teams over their last five games is dismal, which suggests a closely contested clash. Taking into account the hosts' defensive advantage and the high draw percentage for both teams (67% for Cerro at home, 50% for Progreso away), sharing the points is the most probable outcome.
Cerro vs Progreso: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Cerro play Progreso in Primera División (Uruguay). The match date is 14 March 2026 at 14:00. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Cerro: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Progreso: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Cerro scores 0.60 and concedes 1.60 goals per match. Progreso scores 0.80 and concedes 1.60. League average: 2.42 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Cerro 40%, Progreso 45%. Over 2.5: Cerro 35%, Progreso 45%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 46%.
xG, shots and style
Cerro has higher xG: 1.32 vs 1.18. Cerro: 11.4 shots per match, Progreso: 8.6.
Match halves
Cerro: half-time lead 5%, second-half goals 0.30. Progreso: half-time lead 10%, second-half goals 0.45.
Goals by minute
Cerro: 76-90+ (5 goals). Progreso: 76-90+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.42 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 46%.
Head-to-head
2 H2H matches: 0-1-1. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Match description
Both teams are displaying very poor form this season, with an identical record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, as well as the same PPG (0.4 points per match). Cerro has not won a single home game but possesses a better defense (1 goal conceded on average) and goal difference (-1) compared to Progreso away (-2, 2 goals conceded on average). Progreso has better shooting efficiency (20% vs 7%) and more shots on target (2.5 vs 2) but has conceded a massive 10 goals in 5 away matches. The form of both teams over their last five games is dismal, which suggests a closely contested clash. Taking into account the hosts' defensive advantage and the high draw percentage for both teams (67% for Cerro at home, 50% for Progreso away), sharing the points is the most probable outcome.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Cerro | Progreso | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Cerro is 100% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Cerro · 0.6 pts / match - Progreso
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Progreso is 33% better for: goals scored per match.
0.6 goals / match - Cerro · 0.8 goals / match - Progreso
Cerro scores in 55% of matches (11 of 20 matches), while Progreso keeps a clean sheet in 5% (1 of 20 matches).
Progreso scores in 50% of matches (10 of 20 matches), while Cerro keeps a clean sheet in 15% (3 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Cerro
Over / Under — Progreso
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Cerro is 15% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.75 pts / match - Cerro · 0.65 pts / match - Progreso
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Cerro - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 5% of matches and wins 20%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Progreso - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 10% of matches and wins 15%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 0% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -6 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -8 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goli). Concedes most in 16-30 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Cerro
Progreso
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Cerro | Liga | Progreso | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.20 | 2.42 | • 2.40 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 40% | 53% | ▼ 45% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 35% | 46% | • 45% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 15% | 27% | ▼ 5% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 69% | ▲ 80% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 90% | 73% | ▲ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Cerro 0 - 1 - 1 Progreso. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Cerro vs Progreso?
The Primera División match finished Cerro 0:1 Progreso. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Cerro and Progreso?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Cerro won 0, Progreso won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Cerro vs Progreso?
Cerro score 0.60 goals per game on average and Progreso 0.80. The Primera División average is 2.42 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 40% of Cerro's matches and 45% of Progreso's.
What form are Cerro and Progreso in?
Over the last 5 games Cerro have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Progreso 1-0-4 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Cerro vs Progreso?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Cerro vs Progreso: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.